Rubio's decision not to visit Baku is no coincidence, Armenian analyst says

Armenian political analyst Suren Sargsyan says U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s decision not to visit Azerbaijan during his regional trip "is not accidental”, arguing that Washington’s strategic priorities in the South Caucasus are centered on Armenia.

In a social media post on Tuesday, Sargsyan stated Rubio’s stop in Yerevan would mark the first visit by a U.S. secretary of state to Armenia since Hillary Clinton traveled to the country in 2014.

He described the visit as a short “transit” stop without an overnight stay, noting that Rubio is expected to return from India and spend only several hours in the Armenian capital. Sargsyan compared the trip to former U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s 1999 visit to Armenia, during which Rumsfeld met then-Defense Minister Serzh Sargsyan and President Robert Kocharyan.

Sargsyan said Rubio is expected to hold a brief meeting with his Armenian counterpart at the airport, sign a memorandum of understanding and potentially meet Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at the government headquarters. The absence of such a meeting, he added, would itself carry political significance.

The analyst argued that Washington currently has two primary strategic priorities in the South Caucasus: advancing the TRIPP project and increasing pressure on Iran. He noted that the TRIPP initiative is also being viewed through the broader lens of U.S. policy toward Tehran.

“In this context, Rubio’s decision not to travel to Baku is not accidental,” Sargsyan wrote. “TRIPP passes through Armenian territory and largely constitutes an Armenian-American project.”

He added that U.S. officials are already well aware of Azerbaijan’s positions on both the TRIPP initiative and Iran, making additional consultations less necessary. As a result, he believes discussions in Yerevan are likely to focus primarily on regional developments surrounding Iran and the TRIPP.

Sargsyan also addressed speculation that Rubio’s visit could be interpreted as indirect support for Armenia’s current leadership ahead of the June 7 parliamentary elections.

“This possibility cannot be ruled out, but one of the world’s busiest officials would not visit Yerevan solely for that purpose,” the analyst wrote.

He claimed that the Armenian authorities would nevertheless seek to use the visit for domestic political messaging, even if Rubio refrains from making any explicit public statements of support.

More broadly, Sargsyan argued that the United States would support any political force in Armenia capable of advancing American interests in the South Caucasus, regardless of political affiliation.

He expressed hope that Armenia’s leadership would avoid involvement in any “anti-Iranian adventurism”, warning that even U.S. President Donald Trump's administration has struggled to develop a viable “exit strategy” after deepening its engagement in regional tensions.