Armenian economist questions government's claims on new export markets amid Russian restrictions

Armenian economist Tatul Manaseryan has cast doubt on government assurances that alternative export markets can quickly replace Russia as a destination for Armenian agricultural products, warning that losing access to the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) market would represent a significant economic setback.

His comments come as Russian authorities have repeatedly restricted imports of certain Armenian agricultural goods, prompting concerns among producers and exporters. In response, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said the government had dispatched delegations to explore new markets abroad and pledged support for farmers whose perishable goods are affected by the disruptions.

Speaking to Panorama.am on Wednesday, Manaseryan, a professor of economics, criticized the government's sudden confidence in resolving long-standing structural challenges.

"The impression is that elections should be held more often, because miracles seem to happen during such periods," he said. "Issues that remained unresolved for years suddenly appear solvable within a matter of days."

In a pointed critique of the government's approach, Manaseryan argued that recent statements create the impression that institutional mechanisms have become secondary to direct intervention by the country's leadership.

"It turns out we don't need ministries or specialized agencies. All one has to do is appeal to the prime minister, and he will subsidize producers and find foreign markets," he said. "After eight years, many expected meaningful institutional reforms. Instead, the message seems to be that every problem can be solved through personal intervention."

Manaseryan stressed the strategic importance of the EAEU market for Armenia, noting that the bloc has provided trade advantages that the country has not secured through other international arrangements.

The EAEU, which includes Armenia, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, has evolved significantly since its establishment, he said. Over the past decade, Armenia's trade turnover with EAEU member states has increased twelvefold — a rate of growth he described as extraordinary by international standards.

"The question is whether Armenia can afford to lose a market where consumers are already familiar with Armenian products and where domestic producers benefit from preferential conditions," he said.

While European countries may be willing to support Armenia symbolically or through limited short-term measures, Manaseryan argued that expectations of a rapid breakthrough in European markets are unrealistic.

Many EU member states, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe, continue to face challenges related to strengthening their own domestic industries and expanding local consumption, he said. Under those conditions, introducing Armenian products that remain largely unfamiliar to European consumers would be difficult.

He also pointed to intense competition in sectors where Armenia traditionally exports, including brandy production.

"It is difficult to imagine significant demand for Armenian brandy in countries whose own producers dominate the market," he said, citing France as an example.

Manaseryan further accused the government of failing to meaningfully advance Armenia's economic integration with Europe despite repeated political declarations.

He noted that Armenia signed the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the European Union in 2017 but argued that implementation has lagged behind official rhetoric.

"Beyond declarations, relations with Europe have not developed to the extent that has been promised," he said. "At the same time, trade flows with Russia have continued to expand."

According to Manaseryan, this trend exposes a contradiction in the government's stated diversification strategy.

"Every time diversification is discussed, dependence appears to deepen rather than decrease," he said.

Asked about reports of a recent Armenian-Turkish business forum that took place shortly after the government announced efforts to identify alternative export channels, Manaseryan suggested that Ankara would readily seize opportunities that advance its economic and strategic interests.

"Turkey understands its national interests very well and pursues them consistently," he said. "It would be naive to expect otherwise."