Opposition holds collective edge despite Civil Contract lead in new Armenia election poll

Armenia’s ruling Civil Contract party remains the leading political force ahead of the June 7 elections, but opposition parties collectively enjoy a significant advantage, according to a new survey released by MPG LLC, the Armenian member organization of Gallup International Association.

The poll found that 32.4% of respondents who expressed a voting preference said they would support Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party.

Among opposition groups, the Strong Armenia alliance was the second-most supported political force at 16.4%, followed by the Hayastan bloc at 15.2%. The Prosperous Armenia Party polled at 8.8%, while the Wings of Unity party received 6.2%.

Presenting the findings at a news conference on Friday, MPG Director Aram Navasardyan said the five political forces would enter the parliament if the elections were held under the conditions reflected in the survey.

While Civil Contract remains the largest single party, the combined support of the four opposition groups projected to secure parliamentary representation stands at 46.6%, nearly 15% higher than the ruling party’s result.

Two additional parties appear to be within reach of the electoral threshold. The DOK party garnered 3.2% support, while the Bright Armenia Party received 3.1%, suggesting both could still play a role in shaping the composition of the next legislature.

Support for the remaining parties was limited. The New Force party received 2.1%, while 2% of respondents selected the Against All option. The Republic party polled at 1.5%, with several smaller political groups registering support below 1%.

The survey also highlighted a potentially volatile post-election environment. Half of those questioned said they would be willing to participate in public demonstrations to defend their vote following the elections, indicating a high level of political mobilization among the electorate.

Meanwhile, 4.2% of respondents declined to disclose their voting preference, while another 2.1% said they remained undecided.

The telephone survey was conducted on June 2-3 and included 1,104 respondents across Armenia.