Armenian political analyst predicts early elections after June 7 vote

Armenian political analyst Stepan Danielyan has predicted that Armenia's newly elected parliament could face early elections within a year, citing public skepticism over the June 7 parliamentary vote and what he sees as rapidly evolving geopolitical conditions.

In an interview with Panorama.am on Monday, Danielyan said the exact timing was uncertain but argued that the parliament's tenure could be significantly shorter than a full term.

"Immediately after the 2017 parliamentary elections, I said that it was a one-year parliament," Danielyan said. "This parliament is also a one-year parliament. From today, preparations should begin for the next snap elections."

Danielyan, a member of the Mother Armenia party who appeared on the Prosperous Armenia Party's electoral list in the elections, pointed to two main factors underpinning his assessment.

First, he said there is widespread public distrust of the election process and its outcome. According to Danielyan, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his ruling Civil Contract party had previously been able to claim a clear public mandate following the 2018 and 2021 elections, but he argued that this was no longer the case.

Danielyan specifically criticized a decision by Armenia's Central Election Commission (CEC) to invalidate results from three polling stations without ordering repeat voting. He contended that the move affected the final distribution of seats in parliament and further undermined confidence in the election results.

"The latest and most serious example was the CEC's decision," Danielyan said.

As a second factor, Danielyan cited major geopolitical shifts, including improving relations between the United States and Iran and the possibility of a reduction in hostilities between Russia and Ukraine.

He argued that changes in the regional and international environment could have significant implications for Armenia's domestic political landscape and the durability of the current government.

Asked why the CEC chose not to order repeat voting at the affected polling stations, Danielyan alleged that the decision was intended to help the ruling party secure a three-fifths majority in parliament.

"The reason for that decision is very simple: to ensure that Civil Contract obtained three-fifths of the seats in parliament," he said.

Danielyan further claimed that the decision was unconstitutional and unlawful.