Armenian seismologist dismisses viral earthquake prediction

A leading Armenian seismologist has dismissed as false social media reports predicting a magnitude 7.4 earthquake in Armenia's Kotayk Province in the coming weeks, stressing that the precise prediction of earthquakes remains one of science's most intractable challenges.

The warning footage surfaced on X two days after the devastating earthquakes in Venezuela, prompting widespread concern among Armenian social media users. Armenia's Interior Ministry swiftly rejected the report as fake.

Hrachya Petrosyan, an adviser to the director of the Institute of Geological Sciences at the Armenian National Academy of Sciences, urged the people not to trust the circulating reports, describing them as misinformation fueled either by political manipulation or public anxiety following the Venezuelan disaster.

"There is absolutely no connection between the tectonic activity in Venezuela and geological processes in Armenia," Petrosyan told Panorama.am on Saturday. "The Armenian public is already under considerable stress. There is no justification for spreading fear through false reports."

Petrosyan said that despite decades of international research, the scientific community has yet to develop a reliable method capable of accurately forecasting the timing, location and magnitude of major earthquakes.

"Earthquake prediction remains an unresolved scientific problem worldwide," he said. "Current science does not possess a definitive physical or mathematical solution for predicting destructive earthquakes."

Petrosyan, who previously worked at Armenia's National Survey for Seismic Protection while conducting research on seismic hazard assessment and earthquake forecasting, said his conclusions are based on decades of specialized research. He noted that he has published 93 scientific papers across 17 countries, including two monographs dedicated to the subject.

Although Armenia lies within an active seismic zone and remains vulnerable to future earthquakes, Petrosyan cautioned against interpreting that fact as evidence that a major earthquake is imminent.

The country has experienced several destructive earthquakes throughout its history, most notably the catastrophic 1988 Spitak earthquake, which killed tens of thousands of people and devastated large parts of northern Armenia.

However, Petrosyan emphasized that Armenia is not unique in facing seismic risks. Neighboring Turkey, Iran, Azerbaijan and Georgia all occupy highly active tectonic regions, with Turkey and Iran experiencing earthquakes of greater magnitude and frequency than those historically recorded in Armenia.

Addressing questions about whether major earthquakes recur on predictable cycles, Petrosyan said recurrence intervals can be estimated only across large geographic regions with extensive seismic records.

"The concept of earthquake recurrence does exist," he said. "But applying it to a relatively small territory like Armenia is not scientifically sound."

He explained that Turkey records, on average, approximately 26 earthquakes of varying magnitudes each day, providing a far larger statistical dataset from which recurrence probabilities can be estimated. Armenia, by contrast, experiences few significant seismic events to produce reliable statistical forecasts.

"Ascribing arbitrary recurrence intervals of 40 or 60 years to Armenia lacks scientific rigor," Petrosyan said, dismissing claims about fixed earthquake cycles.