Arrests ahead of Armenian parliamentary elections reflect government fears, analyst says

A series of arrests and new criminal charges announced by Armenia’s Investigative Committee just days before Sunday’s parliamentary elections have raised concerns among opposition figures, with political analyst Vigen Hakobyan arguing that the developments reflect growing anxiety within the ruling regime ahead of the vote.

The arrests, which reportedly involve members of the former ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) as well as other former officials, were announced two days before parliamentary elections scheduled for June 7.

In an interview with Panorama.am on Friday, Hakobyan said the timing of the measures suggested that the authorities were attempting to neutralize individuals they perceive as influential opposition figures capable of mobilizing public resistance in the event of disputed election results.

“These steps indicate deep concerns and fears among the authorities,” Hakobyan said. “If the government faces electoral defeat, it may be forced to resort to measures outside the normal electoral process to influence the outcome. Such actions could provoke public backlash if voters believe they have been deceived.”

Hakobyan argued that the arrests appeared designed to isolate opposition figures with organizational capacity, political influence, and access to resources. He also suggested that additional detentions could occur in the coming days, citing a broader pattern in the government’s conduct.

“If individuals with political standing, organizational experience, and public authority are arrested at the most intense stage of the political process, on the basis of allegations that authorities likely could have pursued months earlier, it suggests the government is confronting specific vulnerabilities,” he said.

The analyst also questioned public opinion surveys indicating that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s ruling Civil Contract party commands a comfortable majority. According to Hakobyan, internal polling available to the government likely presents a more accurate assessment of electoral support than publicly released surveys.

“I believe it is precisely the sociological data that is unsettling the authorities,” he said, adding that recent political developments and government behavior did not project confidence. “The actions we are witnessing are not the actions of a government certain of its position.”

Hakobyan further criticized a recent report published by Euronews concerning Armenian election polling. He alleged that the polling organization cited in the report subsequently distanced itself from the figures attributed to it, accusing the outlet of disseminating inaccurate information.

The analyst also alleged that European institutions and what he described as the “European bureaucracy” are politically aligned with Armenia’s current government and are supporting it during the election campaign.

Hakobyan maintained that alternative polling data place support for the ruling Civil Contract party significantly below the levels reported in some published surveys, estimating its backing at approximately 32% to 33%.