Region on edge as Iran-Israel conflict intensifies; Armenia urged to remain vigilant

The Middle East is entering a period of heightened instability as tensions between Iran, the United States and Israel intensify, an Armenian expert has warned, cautioning that Armenia’s room for maneuver remains limited amid the growing crisis.

Gohar Iskandaryan, director of the Institute of Oriental Studies at Armenia’s National Academy of Sciences, said on Monday that the current standoff between Tehran and Washington is the culmination of decades of deteriorating relations that began after the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

“Until 1979, Iran was a key U.S. ally in the region and its nuclear program was launched with American support,” Iskandaryan told Panorama.am. “Today, the former allies are effectively in a state of war, having failed to resolve deep-rooted disagreements over the years.”

She noted that since January, Washington has demanded sweeping concessions from Tehran, including a complete halt to uranium enrichment and the cessation of missile development, which has been firmly rejected by Iran as unacceptable.

While diplomatic talks were underway in Geneva, the United States was also deploying aircraft carriers closer to Iranian waters, she said, suggesting that the possibility of military action was becoming increasingly apparent.

“It was clear that a strike was likely. Iran was prepared for that scenario,” Iskandaryan said.

According to her, Iran responded swiftly to strikes by Israel and the United States, launching missile attacks against Israeli territory and U.S. military bases in the region, signaling readiness for further escalation.

Iskandaryan also questioned the decision of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to remain at his residence during the strikes. “He apparently sought to become a martyr,” she said, arguing that it could mobilize Shi’ite communities across the region.

She pointed to protests among Shi’ite groups in Iraq, Pakistan and India as signs of mounting unrest, warning that the region may be on the brink of broader instability.

Despite Iran’s retaliatory capabilities, Iskandaryan assessed that the balance of power currently favors the United States and Israel.

“The regional situation is extremely tense. Military operations have not stopped and tend to intensify in the evening hours,” she said. “Iran is facing powerful aerial strikes, while relying on its own resources to deliver targeted blows against U.S. bases and Israel. At this stage, Iran is largely isolated.”

Turning to Armenia, Iskandaryan emphasized that Yerevan has limited capacity to influence regional developments. However, she warned of potential spillover effects if the conflict drags on.

“If military operations continue over a long time, refugee flows will be inevitable. The key question is whether we will be able to thoroughly screen and identify those entering the country from a national security standpoint,” she said.