Turkey moves to shield energy supplies amid Iran conflict, expert says

Turkey is taking steps to safeguard its energy security against potential spillover from a widening conflict involving Iran, as disruptions to regional oil and gas flows could have significant knock-on effects, Armenian energy expert Vahe Davtyan said in an interview to Panorama.am on Tuesday.

Under a scenario in which U.S. and Israeli strikes target Iran and Tehran retaliates by hitting U.S. and Israeli-linked energy infrastructure in the region and effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, global energy markets would face immediate strain. Such a move would halt exports from the Persian Gulf and likely prompt further attacks on Iran’s own oil and gas infrastructure, Davtyan said.

China would be particularly exposed. Iran exported between 1.3 million and 1.4 million barrels of oil per day to China in 2025, accounting for more than 80% of Iran’s total oil exports and around 11–12% of China’s crude imports, he said. Beijing holds roughly 900 million barrels in strategic reserves, equivalent to about 78 days of imports, allowing it to withstand a temporary supply halt for nearly three months.

However, Davtyan warned that Iranian crude’s preferential discounts would likely narrow amid supply fears, adding further upward pressure on prices. Oil prices have already risen to around $79–$80 per barrel, he noted. While China’s reserves and domestic infrastructure could mitigate short-term disruptions, supply volatility and price swings remain significant risks.

Turkey could also face challenges. Iran supplies around 7–8 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas annually to Turkey through the Tabriz–Ankara pipeline. If Iranian gas production facilities were damaged or output curtailed, deliveries could fall sharply.

Ankara has moved to reduce its exposure. State energy company BOTAŞ has highlighted supply diversification, long-term contracts and expanded liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage capacity as buffers against potential disruption. Davtyan said Turkey may also seek to strengthen its role as a regional transit hub, increasing gas flows to Europe via existing routes such as TurkStream and other southern corridors.

This positioning could become more significant if broader Middle Eastern instability disrupts LNG production elsewhere in the region, tightening global supply.

Armenia’s direct exposure is more limited. The Iran–Armenia gas pipeline currently delivers about 300–350 million cubic metres annually, well below its technical capacity of up to 2.3 bcm. Stable supplies from Russia mean Armenia is unlikely to face a gas deficit even if Iranian imports decline, Davtyan said.

However, Iranian gas imports are conducted under a barter arrangement in which Armenia supplies electricity in exchange for gas. Any reduction in Iranian gas deliveries would likely lead to a corresponding drop in Armenian electricity exports to Iran.